Introduction
Anthropic's reliance on private natural gas plants for its data centers is a key near-term risk, as the company warns of potential price hikes and supply disruptions. This article delves into the specifics of this risk and its implications for Anthropic and the broader data center industry.
Natural Gas Dependency
Data centers are increasingly turning to private natural gas plants for energy. As America's data center boom continues, these facilities are expected to consume a staggering amount of natural gas. Many companies are opting to build their own plants rather than waiting for grid connections. According to Cleanview, the amount of behind-the-meter gas projects in development has grown from 20 gigawatts in July 2025 to 110 gigawatts by October 2026.
Potential Risks
The surge in demand for gas comes on top of an already tight market. US export terminals are sending more gas abroad for various reasons, including geopolitical conflicts and federal support for exports. By 2035, BloombergNEF estimates that grid-connected data centers alone could add an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas demand, a 15 percent increase in overall demand. Adding on a conservative estimate of onsite gas capacity in the pipeline would add another 3 billion cubic feet per day by the next decade.
Anthropic's Position
Anthropic has traditionally relied on renting compute from major cloud service providers, but has moved in recent months to directly lease and develop data centers. The company has announced data center sites in Texas and New York, exposing itself to more risks, including the rises in natural gas prices. The geographical dispersion of its data centers opens Anthropic up to regional gas supply shocks and markets. That's particularly true in the Southeast, where projects will have to compete with LNG exports.
Competition and Supply Disruptions
The company acknowledges that increased competition among users for the same natural gas supply and pipeline capacity in areas like Texas could drive up the price of natural gas and adversely affect its ability to contract for firm fuel supply. Any strain on gas supply could have knock-on effects for home energy bills. While markets are unlikely to be as extreme as the energy crisis of 2022, there is still a risk that gas prices could rise and be passed on to consumers.
Renewable Energy as a Solution
Anthropic mentions renewables only once in its IPO filing, dismissing them as a potential solution. However, newer sources of generation, such as solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal power, offer a climate benefit and could be a viable alternative to natural gas.
Conclusion
Anthropic's reliance on private natural gas plants for its data centers is a growing near-term risk, with potential implications for its AI ambitions and the broader data center industry. Addressing this risk will require a multi-faceted approach, including exploring renewable energy sources and managing competition for natural gas supply.