Introduction
The polar vortex, a band of upper-level winds wrapping around the Arctic Circle, is about to make weather weird from the UK to the US. Disruptions in this circulation, known as the polar vortex, often push intensely cold air out of the Arctic toward lower latitudes. This phenomenon is expected to have significant impacts on weather patterns in North America.
Historical Context
Experts still aren’t entirely sure how the current collapse will play out in our everyday weather. But it’s another sign that we may be in for a wild ride over the weeks and months to come. The manner in which the polar vortex breaks down determines what kind of weather conditions we might expect.
Current Situation
One such case made this phenomenon a household name. A highly disrupted polar vortex in early 2015 sent a weeks-long burst of cold air sweeping over the eastern US. Chicago recorded its coldest February in nearly 140 years. In Lexington, Kentucky, temperatures bottomed out at , 18 degrees Fahrenheit, as subfreezing air dove all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
Implications of Early Breakdown
Seeing a breakdown of the polar vortex this early in the season is unprecedented in the historical record. Disruptions of this extent typically don’t occur until the latter half of winter. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday.
El Niño and Its Influence
Weather patterns take a few weeks to respond to a polar vortex disruption, if at all. Given that reliable forecasts only extend about 10 days into the future, we can’t know where in the northern hemisphere cold air from the Arctic may spill. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday.
El Niño’s Impact
Historically warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have already significantly affected conditions around the world, and this influence will only grow heading into the winter months. Much of North America can expect warmer-than-normal conditions during a winter dominated by a strong El Niño. But every event is different, and now with a sudden disruption in the polar vortex, those forecasts are less certain, because unexpected things can happen when unprecedented phenomena overlap.
Conclusion
The polar vortex breakdown is another sign of a wild winter ahead. While experts are still debating the exact causes driving this polar vortex breakdown, the event throws another wrench into a cool season already dominated by another unprecedented event: the strongest El Niño on record. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday. The latest data shows that the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday.
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